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Er det lige så skidekedeligt, hvis I får d~
Fra : steen hjortsø


Dato : 06-05-08 07:51

Ja, det vil jo vise sig. Værs'go':

What has Iran learnt about small nuclear weapons ?

The short answer is: I have no idea.

But this is hardly all there is to say. For some years Iran has
confronted a developing US/Israeli deployment of small tactical
nuclear weapons to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and it is not
credible that Iran has learnt nothing in terms of precision of
application, avoidance of radioactive fallout, etc. from this
predicament.

We need to examine the contingency that Iran might itself consider
using small tactical atom bombs.

These considerations could also be collected under the heading:

How Can We Evade the MAD-logic ?

The American plans of bombing Iranian nuclear facilities constitute by
themselves intimations of nuclear action pretending to be capable of
bypassing the MAD-circuit.

For Iran, one of the elements attempting to shirk the MAD issue would
be to act by proxy. If a group of terrorists kept in a firm hold by
Iran could detonate a small nuclear weapon in Israel which did not
exceed the explosive power of a few truckloads of semtex by several
orders of magnitude then Israel’s response would perhaps not be
nuclear.

Israel might instead consider resorting to a limited conventional
bombing of Hizbollah- and Hamas-land.

As for the current interest of these considerations or put more
frankly, does Iran have the atom bomb, it suffices here to quote Rafi
Eitan’s statement to Jerusalem Post on 31.01.2006: “I am convinced
that the Iranians already have at least one or two nuclear devices.
They have been operating centrifuges for a number of years now, they
have natural uranium, and who on earth believes the Iranians when they
say that they have closed down one facility or another ? You would
have to be an idiot or terribly naïve to believe them.”

Steen Hjortsoe


 
 
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