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Energy in America - Living in a state of d~
Fra : Jan Rasmussen


Dato : 15-04-08 17:22

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Energy in America - Living in a state of denial
BY TONY ALLISON

The nature of humans is to assume everything is okay until the day it isn't. Then of course it's too
late and we all look for someone to blame, except ourselves of course. Americans started the "age of
petroleum energy" in 1859 in Titusville, Pennsylvania, and have come to expect cheap and abundant
energy ever since. Even today, a quart of oil is cheaper than milk, or even bottled water. However,
the earth's one-time gift of oil is at or near its peak of giving, and most Americans are not even
remotely aware or prepared for the changes ahead.

The level of awareness for most of us only extends to grumbling at the gas pump and blaming the
"greedy" oil companies for the inconvenience. Most are unaware that "Big Oil" controls about 17% of
world oil production. The other 83% is controlled by national oil companies, representing countries
such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Fifty years ago, America easily supplied its own energy needs, and much of the rest of the world as
well. Today, we import nearly 70% of our energy from outside our boarders. As much as we would like
to believe in alternative energy sources, they currently represent only 2-3% of our energy needs. We
are a carbon-based society, and will likely remain so for the next few decades.

For many years our politicians have spoken confidently of once again becoming energy independent.
However reality seems to be gradually creeping into the halls of government. The Assistant Energy
Secretary Alexander Karsner recently was quoted that "the places where oil can be found and
extracted and brought to bear in the world are decreasing. It will get harder, and demand will
outstrip supply for probably the rest of my lifetime." The government realizes there is no magic
bullet right around the corner, but is reluctant to call for dramatic action unless a crisis is at
hand.

Global Demand- Why it will not level off

According to the CERA Report, world oil depletion is approximately 4 million barrels per day, per
year. That amount must be discovered every year just to replace what we've lost. Excess capacity,
mainly in Saudi Arabia, is also shrinking, and it would clearly not be in OPEC's best interest to
max out their oil fields just to keep the world oil price stable.

The larger problem is demand, however. The CERA Report also projected global demand to grow to an
additional 59 million barrels per day by 2017. That means adding the equivalent of six Saudi Arabia's
in one decade! This does not appear remotely feasible given the decade lead times between discovery
and production, even if enough oil had been discovered, which it hasn't.

Ultimately it comes down to mathematics. The global population was roughly one billion people when
the oil age began in the 19th century. Today the global population is 6.6 billion, and rising
rapidly. As long as the world population keeps expanding and developing, it will be very difficult
to curtail demand without much higher prices.

Developing World- demand growing rapidly

Currently new oil demand is coming from China (390 thousand barrels per day growth in 2008), India
(140 kbpd), Saudi Arabia (150 kbpd) and other Middle Eastern countries (330 kbpd). India and China
consume only a third as much oil as the US. If the Chinese and Indians ever consumed as much oil per
capita as Americans, world oil demand would rise from the current 86 million barrels per day to 200
million barrels per day. For some perspective, ConocoPhillips CEO James Mulva was quoted in November
that he doubted world oil producers would be able to meet forecast long-term energy demand growth.
Also, Total SA CEO Christophe de Margerie said in October it was "optimistic" to expect oil
production to ever surpass 100 million barrels a day.

What these developing countries have in common are young populations, rapidly expanding economies
and incomes, and heavily subsidized oil prices. Even with the world oil price hovering around $110
per barrel, it is unlikely these countries will risk social unrest by removing the massive oil
subsidy. These are all creditor nations with large trade balance reserves, and each can afford to
stimulate domestic oil demand for the foreseeable future.

In addition, other subsidized countries such as Venezuela, Mexico and Russia are exhibiting soaring
domestic demand growth and are beginning to cannibalize oil exports. That is indeed the crux of the
issue. If this rapidly growing demand in the developing world continues, then demand must fall
rapidly in the developed world, or shortages will be upon us.

Food prices rise with energy

The industrial food supply system is one of the biggest consumers of fossil fuels. Massive amounts
of oil and gas are used in the manufacture of fertilizers and pesticides. All stages of food
production use fossil fuels; from planting, to irrigation, feeding, harvesting, processing and
distribution. As the demand for energy and food continues to rise, the price to deliver both is
likely to rise as well.

As of this month, there are food riots in over 30 countries, as basic food costs around the world
have skyrocketed in the past year. This phenomenon may be relatively short term in nature, but it
should serve as a shot across the bow as one of the critical issues related to the peaking of global
oil production. The potential for future widespread geopolitical strife is very real.

Mexico's declining production

Mexico, the second largest supplier of crude oil to the US after Canada (1.5 million barrels per
day), is facing a crisis with no easy solutions. Mexico's proven oil reserves are expected to run
out in approximately 9 years with the rapid depletion of the Cantarell oil field. Pemex, the
government controlled oil company, is on the verge of bankruptcy and has neither the resources nor
the technology to carry out critical exploration for new oil discoveries.

According to the Inter Press Service News Agency (IPS), the government of Mexico continues to siphon
off nearly all of the Pemex revenues, which finance 40% of the government budget. A new draft law
has recently been introduced to allow Pemex greater freedom with respect to making decisions on its
budget, re-investing earnings and contracting out to private companies. The early debate was met by
threats of social uprising by the left wing opposition. The bill has an uncertain fate, according to
the IPS.

Time is running short, and the implications of Mexico as a net importer of energy will directly
affect the US. Mexican oil output now stands at 2.9 million barrels per day, down 300,000 barrels
per day in just two years. As Mexico's production declines, the US will look to Canada to fill the
gap. However, the extremely high production costs of the Canadian oil sands will make oil available,
but at high prices that will likely stay that way.

Time to get started

As Europe, China and Japan have done, the US needs to expand nuclear power capacity. It will still
likely take a decade from start to finish per nuclear plant, but the longer we delay, the more
dependent we become. How many refineries, nuclear power plants and new drilling rigs are on the
drawing board in the US? China is planning to build 2-3 nuclear power facilities every year for the
next 20 years. Wind power, solar and Biofuels have roles to play as well, but they cannot come close
to replacing fossil fuel in a decade, and certainly Biofuels can't power all our trains, planes and
automobiles anytime soon.

If we don't move beyond the "denial stage" as a country to the "realization stage" and begin to
transcend politics and take action, we are likely to move directly to the "panic stage" with very
little preparation. America will not run out of energy, but it will likely be less abundant and
considerably more expensive in the future.

As the world's largest debtor nation that borrows $2.5 billion per day from foreign sources to pay
our bills, and imports 70% of our energy needs, the US can't afford the luxury of waiting for
technology to eventually save the day. We must begin to take steps immediately.

Even the White House is admitting the hour is growing late. Edward Lazear, chairman of the White
House Council of Economic Advisers recently stated: "We could have been thinking about all of this
10 or 15 years ago when it comes to alternatives or new exploration, and we weren't." Look for
massive conservation efforts in the future. But since so much of our energy use revolves around
transportation, conservation will not be the silver bullet, unless we resort to draconian measures
such as mandatory gas rationing.

Living in a state of blissful denial is only a viable strategy until the day reality pulls into
town. Realization and preparation are strategies that make more sense in dealing with the waning of
the Petroleum Age.

Make the best of it as an investor

As the lifeblood of global commerce, energy will be in great demand, even as the price rises. I have
had my clients in the energy sector for many years, and continue to see great opportunities in the
years ahead. Investors should focus on high quality exploration and production companies, oil
service companies, as well as uranium, solar and wind producers for the long term. Capital will
continue to flood the critical global energy sector. The best companies, with the best prospects, in
relatively stable geopolitical areas, will be extremely profitable in the years ahead.

Today's Markets

U.S. stocks on Monday finished the session slightly lower with investors still digesting the poor
results from General Electric, while receiving further evidence of the ailing financial sector from
Wachovia Corporation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23.36 to close at 12,302.06. The S&P 500 Index closed down
4.51 to close at 1,328.32. The Nasdaq also closed lower, ending at 2,275.82, down 14.42.

In another sign of trouble in the embattled financial sector, Wachovia said that it would raise $7
billion in capital and slash its dividend after posting a $350 million first-quarter loss.

Crude-oil futures were up more than a dollar to close above $111 a barrel on Monday, propelled by
the dollar's decline against other major currencies. Also pushing crude prices higher were supply
disruptions in both a US pipeline and in Nigeria. Gold futures finished slightly higher Monday, as
weakness in the US dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal.


Jan Rasmussen



 
 
Jan Rasmussen (15-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Jan Rasmussen


Dato : 15-04-08 17:42

"Jan Rasmussen" <1@1.1> skrev i en meddelelse news:4804d5a3$0$15880$edfadb0f@dtext01.news.tele.dk...

> http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Energy in America - Living in a state of denial
> BY TONY ALLISON

> Excess capacity, mainly in Saudi Arabia, is also shrinking, and it would clearly not be in OPEC's
> best interest to max out their oil fields just to keep the world oil price stable.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL139687720080413
Saudi King says keeping some oil finds for future.

RIYADH, April 13 (Reuters) -
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped
to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations.

"I keep no secret from you that when there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the
ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah said in remarks made late on
Saturday, SPA said.

The U.S. President George W. Bush in January urged the Saudi king to help tame soaring prices by
encouraging OPEC to pump more oil. On separate trips to Saudi Arabia this year, the U.S. energy
secretary also asked for more oil, while the vice president discussed high prices with the king.

The kingdom has spent billions on building over 2 million bpd of spare crude capacity and is the
only country in the world able to bring online large volumes of crude supply quickly to deal with
unexpected supply shortages.

OPEC held production steady at meetings in February and March despite calls for more oil from the
U.S. and other consumers. OPEC officials blame the high price on factors beyond the group's control
such as the weak dollar, investment flows into commodities and speculation. Saudi Oil Minister Ali
al-Naimi said last week that global oil markets were well supplied and there was no need to put more
oil on the market, despite prices hitting a record of over $112 a barrel last week.
____________________

Måske Kongen har set filmen 'Syriana' og tænkt over et par sætninger

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0365737/quotes

Prince Nasir Al-Subaai: What are they thinking, my brother and these American lawyers?
Bryan Woodman: What are they thinking? They're thinking that it's running out. It's running out...
and ninety percent of what's left is in the Middle East. This is a fight to the death.
----
Bryan Woodman: But what do you need a financial advisor for? Twenty years ago you had the highest
Gross National Product in the world, now you're tied with Albania. Your second largest export is
secondhand goods, closely followed by dates which you're losing five cents a pound on...

You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred years ago you were
living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's heads off and that's where you'll be in
another hundred years, so on behalf of my firm I accept your offer.

Jan Rasmussen



Ukendt (15-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Ukendt


Dato : 15-04-08 20:59

"Jan Rasmussen" <1@1.1> skrev i en meddelelse
news:4804d5a3$0$15880$edfadb0f@dtext01.news.tele.dk...
>
> The larger problem is demand, however. The CERA Report also projected
> global demand to grow to an > additional 59 million barrels per day by
> 2017. That means adding the equivalent of six Saudi Arabia's in one
> decade! This does not appear remotely feasible given the decade lead times
> between discovery and production, even if enough oil had been discovered,
> which it hasn't.
>

Det er mig ubegribeligt at der stadig findes folk der tror det hele nok skal
blive ok. "De skal nok finde på noget"

mvh.
Kim Frederiksen



Martin Larsen (15-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Martin Larsen


Dato : 15-04-08 21:45

"Kim Frederiksen" <kim snabel-a the bindestreg coffeeshop punktum dk> skrev
i meddelelsen news:480508c5$0$2097$edfadb0f@dtext02.news.tele.dk...
> "Jan Rasmussen" <1@1.1> skrev i en meddelelse
> news:4804d5a3$0$15880$edfadb0f@dtext01.news.tele.dk...
>>
>> The larger problem is demand, however. The CERA Report also projected
>> global demand to grow to an > additional 59 million barrels per day by
>> 2017. That means adding the equivalent of six Saudi Arabia's in one
>> decade! This does not appear remotely feasible given the decade lead
>> times between discovery and production, even if enough oil had been
>> discovered, which it hasn't.
>>
>
> Det er mig ubegribeligt at der stadig findes folk der tror det hele nok
> skal blive ok. "De skal nok finde på noget"

Ikke for at gøre jeg mere triste, men - Der er allerede MANGE
energialternativer til råolie med den høje pris vi har nu.

Mvh
Martin


kim.frederiksen@gmai~ (16-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : kim.frederiksen@gmai~


Dato : 16-04-08 14:40

On 15 Apr., 22:45, "Martin Larsen" <mlar...@post7.tele.dk> wrote:
>
> Ikke for at gøre jeg mere triste,

Hvorfor skulle vi blive triste ved udsigten til en løsning på Verdens
energiproblemer?

>men - Der er allerede MANGE
> energialternativer til råolie med den høje pris vi har nu.

Hvis der ligefrem er MANGE kan du måske nævne blot et enkelt? Husk at
for at være et alternativ til olie skal følgende kriterier være
opfyldt:

Kan alternativet transporteres lige så nemt som olie?

Er alternativet lige så energimættet som olie?

Kan alternativet benyttes til transport, opvarmning og produktion af
pesticider, plastik og andre petrokemiske produkter?

Har alternativet en energiprofitratio tilsvarende olie?

Hvis nej til ovenstående, er der ikke tale om et alternativ.

Faktisk har vi kun følgende energikilder til rådighed:

Fossile brændstoffer (olie, kul og gas)
Fission (så længe der er Uran at hente op)
Vindkraft (kræver store mængder stål og olie, både i konstruktion og
vedligeholdelse. Derudover er slutproduktet "kun" elektricitet, der
ikke kan oplagres når det ikke blæser)
Vandkraft (slutproduktet er elektricitet)
Solenergi (slutproduktet er elektricitet)
Geotermisk energi (kan kun bruges på steder med særlige geologiske
forhold - slutproduktet er varme eller elektricitet.)

Det er de energikilder der er til rådighed - og ikke andre. Jeg har
med vilje ikke medtaget biobrændstof, da det aldrig vil kunne dække
behovet, pga. behov for landbrugsjord til fødevareproduktion. Brint er
heller ikke medtaget, da brint er en energibærer og ikke en
energikilde. Brint er notorisk svært at opbevare og kræver store
mængder energi, både til fremstilling og nedkøling til flydende form,
der er nødvendig for anvendelse til transport. Da vedvarende energi
ikke er i nærheden af at kunne implementeres i stor skala, er der kun
fossile brændstoffer og fission tilbage.

mvh.
Kim Frederiksen

Martin Larsen (16-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Martin Larsen


Dato : 16-04-08 22:24

<kim.frederiksen@gmail.com> skrev i meddelelsen
news:afa501cd-dcc3-4002-9fb7-dec530ba6a7b@k1g2000prb.googlegroups.com...
On 15 Apr., 22:45, "Martin Larsen" <mlar...@post7.tele.dk> wrote:
>
> Ikke for at gøre jeg mere triste,

Hvorfor skulle vi blive triste ved udsigten til en løsning på Verdens
energiproblemer?

>men - Der er allerede MANGE
> energialternativer til råolie med den høje pris vi har nu.

Hvis der ligefrem er MANGE kan du måske nævne blot et enkelt? Husk at
for at være et alternativ til olie skal følgende kriterier være
opfyldt:

Kan alternativet transporteres lige så nemt som olie?

---------------

Du nævner mange ting som jeg ikke orker at kommentere. Det største problem
ved alternativer til råolie er usikkerheden på prisen. Hvis investorerne
følte sig sikre på en høj energipris, ville der som nævnt være mange
muligheder. Og jeg mener at der af samme grund bliver planlagt mange
projekter nu.

Men hvorfor forudsiger du ikke en dato for total panik og sammenbrud? Du
kunne måske blive berømt.

Mvh
Martin


kim.frederiksen@gmai~ (16-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : kim.frederiksen@gmai~


Dato : 16-04-08 15:35

Martin Larsen skrev:
>
> Du n�vner mange ting som jeg ikke orker at kommentere. Det st�rste problem
> ved alternativer til r�olie er usikkerheden p� prisen.

Det største problem med alternativer til råolie, er at de ikke findes.
Du kunne måske lige nævne blot et enkelt, nu hvor du hævder der
ligefrem er mange?


> Hvis investorerne
> f�lte sig sikre p� en h�j energipris, ville der som n�vnt v�re mange
> muligheder. Og jeg mener at der af samme grund bliver planlagt mange
> projekter nu.

Der bliver planlagt at forsøge at udvide olieproduktion, men der ikke
gjort fund af betydning siden firserne. De vanskelige kilder bliver
rentable nu, men det er stadig små mængder der ikke kan mætte den
globale efterspørgsel. Desuden forsøger man at finde en måde at lægge
transportsektoren over på el eller brint. Atomkraften bliver udbygget.

>
> Men hvorfor forudsiger du ikke en dato for total panik og sammenbrud? Du
> kunne m�ske blive ber�mt.

Det ville være useriøst at forsøge på.

mvh.
Kim Frederiksen

Martin Larsen (16-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Martin Larsen


Dato : 16-04-08 23:31

<kim.frederiksen@gmail.com> skrev i meddelelsen
news:1c62c277-a779-4c64-b8bb-80d9241a4c44@d1g2000hsg.googlegroups.com...
Martin Larsen skrev:
>
> Du n�vner mange ting som jeg ikke orker at kommentere. Det st�rste
> problem
> ved alternativer til r�olie er usikkerheden p� prisen.

Det største problem med alternativer til råolie, er at de ikke findes.
Du kunne måske lige nævne blot et enkelt, nu hvor du hævder der
ligefrem er mange?

-------

Det bliver meget teknik og økonomi, som ikke rigtigt hører til her. Vi har
haft energikriser før - hvis prisen stiger til det ti-dobbelte bliver det
interessant, men det gør den jo nok ikke.

Mvh
Martin


Ukendt (17-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Ukendt


Dato : 17-04-08 15:33

"Martin Larsen" <mlarsen@post7.tele.dk> wrote in message
news:48067e2e$0$15888$edfadb0f@dtext01.news.tele.dk...
>
> Det bliver meget teknik og økonomi, som ikke rigtigt hører til her.

Kniber det med at besvare mit spørgsmål?

mvh.
Kim Frederiksen


Martin Larsen (17-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Martin Larsen


Dato : 17-04-08 16:52

"Kim Frederiksen" <kim snabel-a the bindestreg coffeeshop punktum dk> skrev
i meddelelsen news:48075fa7$0$90274$14726298@news.sunsite.dk...
> "Martin Larsen" <mlarsen@post7.tele.dk> wrote in message
> news:48067e2e$0$15888$edfadb0f@dtext01.news.tele.dk...
>>
>> Det bliver meget teknik og økonomi, som ikke rigtigt hører til her.
>
> Kniber det med at besvare mit spørgsmål?

Næ, det har jeg jo forklaret.
Kom med en forudsigelse, så vi kan stille dig til regnskab for andet end
slag i luften.

Mvh
Martin


Ukendt (17-04-2008)
Kommentar
Fra : Ukendt


Dato : 17-04-08 17:39

"Martin Larsen" <mlarsen@post7.tele.dk> wrote in message
news:48077203$0$15896$edfadb0f@dtext01.news.tele.dk...
>
> Næ, det har jeg jo forklaret.

Du har da intet forklaret. Du hævder at der er endog mange alternative
energikilder. Jeg beder dig nævne blot en enkelt, der kan erstatte olien,
hvilket du endnu ikke har gjort.

> Kom med en forudsigelse, så vi kan stille dig til regnskab for andet end
> slag i luften.

Du beder mig forudsige præcis hvornår olieproduktionen bliver så ringe at
det får alvorlige konsekvenser for de fleste menneskers hverdag. Det kan
hverken jeg eller andre. Det kommer heller ikke til at ske overnight. Det
vil være et forløb.

mvh.
Kim Frederiksen


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