---

'Can U.S. Carmakers Ride Out A Recession?' - 'Stiglitz: Impact Of
Subprime Crisis To Persist 2 To 3 Years' - 'The Dollar's Depreciation
To Persist' - 'Five Years Of A Disastrous War And The Bills Are Coming
Due' - 'Lehman Sees Risk Of Double-Dip U.S. Recession', - 'U.S.
Crashes - China Breaks' (Read full stories below)

- o O o -

Can U.S. Carmakers Ride Out A Recession?

Weaker-than-expected sales could incite suicidal price cutting and
badly damage GM, Chrysler and Ford.

By Alex Taylor III, senior editor
Fortune, via CNN,
19 March, 2008.

(Fortune) -- As most economic indicators continue to flash yellow -
and occasionally red - a vigorous debate is unfolding about how far
auto sales will fall this year.

With all three of Detroit's automakers under significant financial
pressure, the debate is more than academic. None of the three is
expected to make a profit in the U.S. in 2008. Should sales turn out
to be considerably weaker than expected, it would not only create
larger losses but could also incite another round of suicidal price
cutting that would seriously damage all of the companies.

The forecast from ever-optimistic General Motors (GM, Fortune 500)
increasingly looks isolated at the high end of the range. Newly
appointed president Fritz Henderson reasserted his company's
expectation that sales will come in at 15.7 million to 15.8 million
light vehicles, according to Automotive News. Henderson said that
credit is ample and consumers have not yet suffered from widespread
declines in employment and income. Henderson's forecast would appear
to hinge on a strong pickup in activity during the second half of the
year, since sales in January and February ran at a rate of 15.2 to
15.3 million. Exactly what will produce that pickup, he doesn't say.

That's not the viewpoint of Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli, who doesn't see
any economic improvement coming in '08. He describes the current
downturn as "bathtub-shaped" as opposed to v-shaped, implying it will
be of longer duration. Chrysler's business plan calls for sales of
15.5 million cars and trucks this year, but Nardelli says he is ready
to adjust that as required. He continues to cut costs proactively.
Recently he announced the closing of Chrysler's West Coast design
studio and said he would turn the two-week summer production shutdown
into a company-wide vacation.

Meanwhile, Ford (F, Fortune 500) CEO Alan Mulally told a meeting of
Fortune editors on Wednesday that he doesn't know how sales will come
in this year, though his business plan still calls for sales of 15.7
million. As CFO Don LeClair points out, however, the important thing
is not the actual number of sales but the amount of discounting
required to achieve it. If consumers have to be enticed back into
showrooms with especially generous incentives, then the number of
units sold becomes almost irrelevant to the impact on profitability.

The industry's biggest bear is J.D. Power and Associates, which on
Wednesday lowered its forecast to 14.95 million vehicles, down from
15.7 million in December, on signs of declining consumer confidence
and spending, as well as turbulence in financial and economic markets.
"Unfortunately the current environment is fraught with uncertainty and
risk, worsening oil prices and weak housing and stock markets," said
economist Bob Schnorbus.

If there is any good news from a sharper than expected decline, it is:
added urgency to the restructuring that all three companies are
undergoing. Another silver lining: A steeper downturn now could mean a
steeper upturn later. Since most people can't put off buying a car
forever, a deferred purchase in '08 should lead to one in '09 or '10.
Car sales tend to follow a consistent trend with fat years following
lean ones.

With an extra push from favorable demographic trends - a population
bulge creating more licensed drivers - automakers are expecting better
times in a couple of years. Chrysler president Jim Press likes to say
that he enjoys visiting maternity wards because each new baby
represents 13 car-buying cycles over its lifetime. Automakers will get
an extra benefit in 2010 from the full effect of wage and benefit
concessions negotiated last year with the United Auto Workers. GM
expects the benefits of the contract to total some $4 billion
annually.

In the meantime, the question all these companies are asking
themselves is: Can they hang on until then?
_______________________

Stiglitz: Impact Of Subprime Crisis To Persist 2 To 3 Years

Editor: An Lu,
www.chinaview.cn,
21 March, 2008.

BEIJING, March 21 (Xinhua) -- The impact of the subprime crisis will
persist for two to three years, after which the U.S. economy will
recover, the Nobel laureate U.S. economist Joseph E. Stiglitz said
here on Friday.

"The Federal Reserve and Bush administration did too little, too
late, and did not do the right things to redress the problem,"
Stiglitz told an audience at Renmin University.

The former World Bank chief economist said he believed that former
Fed chairman Alan Greenspan "encouraged or contributed" to the problem
by conducting an interest rate policy that had encouraged mortgage
lending to U.S. families from which "the government couldn't bail them
out."

He also blamed the Iraq war for dragging down the U.S. economy.
"It has been proven to be an enormous error," he said. The war was
closely related to the economic problems and "a disaster in every
way," he said.

In his speech, titled "China and Globalization", Stiglitz said
that many people hoped China would save the world from an economic
slow-down. "The fact is that China is a major engine of the world
economy and it can make up for deficiencies of the United States, but
we should also see that China is trying to prevent economic
overheating and inflation."

Stiglitz, an economic adviser during the Clinton administration,
is now a professor at Columbia University in New York and chair of the
school's Committee on Global Thought.

He recently unveiled a new book titled "The Three Trillion War,"
which he wrote with Linda Bilmes from Harvard University's Kennedy
School of Government. The book says the war will cost at least 3
trillion U.S. dollars, assuming that U.S. troops won't withdraw
completely before 2017.
____________________________

The Dollar's Depreciation To Persist

by Randa Takieddine,
Dar Al-Hayat,
19 March, 2008.

An opinion poll in the United States has shown that more than three-
quarters of Americans are convinced that their country has entered a
recession. Yesterday, the dollar hit a fresh low for the seventh time
in a row.

Nonetheless, President George Bush tried to be reassuring when he said
that "everything is under control," acknowledging that the US is
experiencing difficult economic conditions. However, he said that the
situation was under control and that the Federal Reserve intervened
quickly to calm financial markets.

However, the former French minister and head of the International
Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss, expected a continuing economic
crisis with dangerous repercussions for global economic growth.

Traders in international financial markets are expecting the dollar to
remain weak for at least three years, with the Euro reaching around
$1.59 or perhaps $1.60 or $1.70 due to the huge US deficit. However,
some experts expect the dollar to appreciate with the election of a
new president.

An economic expert told al-Hayat that the US deficit is the real
reason for the dollar's weakness, which is expected to persist even
after the election of a new president. This is because the country has
entered a recession and the controls that Bush talked about are no
longer effective.

The current crisis is one of confidence, say experts on the American
economy, which is the world's biggest - it is about ten times the size
of France's economy and represents 25 percent of the world economy.
Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve Chairman, called the crisis
the biggest since World War II. This crisis of confidence has reached
the point where everyone is refraining from lending and pumping money
into the market; therefore, the financial crisis is affecting the
economy, and the entire American economic system feels the impact as a
result.

The US Federal Reserve has repeatedly slashed interest rates since
September 11, 2001. However, economic experts say that the US
administration's ability to move in this domain has lost any
effectiveness. When the government cannot reduce the cost of lending,
this means it can not revitalize its economy, especially with its
exorbitant debt, the outcome of its war in Iraq. Practically speaking,
the US administration lacks any effective tool to limit the dollar
slump at present.

Certainly, the drop in the dollar and the rise in the Euro have a
tremendous impact on the economy of European countries and all of
those that deal in Euro. This is with respect to the cost of exports
compared to US exports, although the oil import bill will remain less
than if it were priced in Euro. Yet, their economies will also suffer
from a huge decline in growth.

Interestingly, the price of oil fell Tuesday morning in Asia from $112
a barrel to $106.10, while the Brent dropped to $102.28. In New York
on Monday evening, the oil barrel fell by more than 4 dollars amid
expectations of a fall in consumption and demand for oil.

Usually, an economic slowdown leads to a fall in the demand for oil.
Therefore, OPEC ministers have been keen to study the prevailing
economic figures before deciding to maintain their production level
unchanged instead of raising it, as requested by consuming
industrialized countries.

OPEC states are right to be wary and not boost production levels,
especially since oil is sufficiently available and expectations about
demand have dropped due to economic conditions.

It is strange to hear voices in the west calling for an OPEC
production increase at this time despite the fact that a recession is
looming, that there is no oil shortage at present, and that high oil
prices reflect the frantic financial markets.

These markets are huge, but the battered dollar has prompted investors
to move away from speculations in the financial markets towards
commodity markets, including oil, hence the unnatural spike in oil
prices.

If a recession is confirmed in the US, it will be a result of Bush's
economic policy and the mounting deficit and debt due to his war in
Iraq.
___________________________

Lehman Sees Risk Of Double-Dip U.S. Recession
by Richard Leong;
Reuters,
March 20, 2008.

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - Investors already coming to grips with
the prospect of a looming U.S. recession face the even bleaker notion
of a "double-dip" economic downturn, U.S. investment bank Lehman
Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday.

The persistent slump in housing will continue to drag on consumers and
growth while tight credit conditions, a weakening job market and
record energy costs are also taking a toll on the economy, according
to economists at the bank.

Double-dip recession last hit the United States in the early 1980s and
sent Japan's economy reeling for much of the 1990s.

Lehman economists predicted the U.S. economy will contract 0.5 percent
in the first quarter and 1.0 percent in the second quarter, followed
by a rebound in the second half. "We expect a feeble recovery in 2009,
with the economy threatening to fall back into recession," Lehman
economists Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris wrote in a research
report.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting campaign and the $150
billion federal stimulus package should limit the expected economic
contraction, but they "will unlikely be sufficient to prevent
recession," they said.

While such a dire scenario is still a minority view, Paul McCulley,
managing director at PIMCO, which runs the biggest U.S. bond fund,
said on CNBC television on Thursday the possibility of a double-dip
U.S. recession is "real.
_____________________

Five Years Of A Disastrous War And The Bills Are Coming Due

By Dave Lindorff,
AfterDowningStreet.Org,
19 March, 2008.

It's appropriate that on this week of the fifth anniversary of the
criminal US invasion of Iraq, we are also seeing several other things:
the death toll of American troops in that doomed adventure is rising
past 4000, the economy is sliding into a recession which could be deep
and long, and the financial markets are teetering on the edge of a
possibly historic collapse.

The conjunction of all of these dire things is no coincidence.

The war on Iraq was a predictable disaster from day one, when the
administration tried to do it on the cheap, using less than half the
manpower that Bush's own generals said would be needed to control the
country after the inevitable collapse of its government and military.
But of course the US had to conduct this war on the cheap because the
country was never really behind the war in the first place. It was a
war that was "marketed" to us like a risky financial investment or a
badly designed new car. The idea was to close the sale and get away
from the deal as quickly as possible, leaving no office forwarding
address.

The problem was that Iraqis, the victims of our attack, didn't
cooperate. They didn't lie down and play dead. They decided to resist
our effort to take over their country and run it like a retail gas
station. So now the US has wasted over $500 billion in a country
trying--and failing--to gain control over a country no bigger than a
mid-sized state, battling against resistance forces armed with
homemade bombs, obsolete grenade launchers and Vietnam-era AK-47
rifles.

But because the Bush/Cheney administration could never admit to
Americans what this war would be costing, and has cost, all that money
has been borrowed. As for the deaths and the tens of thousands of
injuries, the government has hidden these, flying in the casualties in
the dead of night and burying them quickly and as quietly as possible,
while sticking the wounded in closed off VA hospitals and rehab
centers, from which the press, for the most part, are barred (if they
even bother to try and do a story).

That need to hide the truth means that the real cost of the war is
running into the trillions of dollars, because of the interest on the
debt, and because of the the future costs of providing for all those
who are injured.

The war in Iraq has helped to bankrupt this country, which, to be
honest, is the state we're in when the US, year in and year out, is
buying more than it is selling, leaving creditor nations like China,
Japan and Saudi Arabia owning trillions of dollars in debt that cannot
be repaid. It has also distorted the economy. By pushing up the price
of oil to record levels of above $100/barrel, a result of uncertainty
about supplies, plus the virtual removal of Iraq, the world's second
or third-largest oil-producing region, from the market, not to mention
the jeopardizing of the entire oil supply through the Persian Gulf,
which accounts for over 20 percent of the world's oil, the Iraq War
has thrown the US economy into a slump, while at the same time pushing
up inflation.

In order to keep things going in the face of all this, the
administration and the Federal Reserve for years have kept mortgage
rates low and encouraged homeowners to borrow on their home equity in
order to keep spending, and thus the whole system, afloat. That gambit
has now run its course, with the housing bubble finally bursting.

It would seem that there is little left to keep the economy going.

The housing crisis has left the nation's banks and investment banks
holding trillions of dollars in assets that are actually worth only a
fraction of their face value. So rickety is the system that over the
weekend, as the Federal Reserve worked frantically to prevent the
collapse of Bear Stearns, the nation's fifth-largest investment bank,
there was real fear of a total collapse of the finance system, ala
1929. Such a thing could still happen, when the next bank or
investment bank comes a cropper.

Consumers, for their part, are spent out.

And the war continues apace, the bodies, and the bills, piling up.

President Bush is saying it was all worth it. Cheney, touring the
Middle East while trying to drum up support for what would be a
catastrophic and even more criminal attack on Iran, is saying that the
"progress" in Iraq has been "phenomenal." And John McCain, the addled,
past-his-sell-date Republican candidate for president, is committed to
continuing this madness for another century, even if he cannot
remember who the US is fighting over there (he confused the so-called
"Al-Qaeda in Iraq" group--all Sunni--with the Shia militias and had to
be corrected by his travel buddy, Sen. Joe Lieberman).

It's a somber anniversary. Five years of a war that never should have
happened. A country destroyed. America on the ropes economically. A
million Iraqi civilians dead. 4000 American soldiers killed and
another 20,000 maimed.

At some point, the American people will finally say they've had enough
of this madness, manipulation and malfeasance.

The question is what will be left of this place when they finally put
a stop to it and bring the troops home to a jobless economy.

The hucksters and flim-flam men who produced this mess have had their
fun and are preparing to run off with their winnings. We should really
organize a pitchforks and torches march on the White House and
Congress and run them out of town on rails, tarred and feathered,
while we can. They'll be hard to track down once people realize how
we've all been had.

(Dave Lindorff is a Philadelphia-based journalist and columnist. His
latest book is "The Case for Impeachment" (St. Martins Press, 2006 and
now available in paperback). His work is available at www.thiscantbehappening.net)
______________________

U.S. Crashes - China Breaks
By Michalis Firillas,
Haaretz, Israel,
21 March, 2008.

News from America is bleak. Earlier this week the Federal Reserve came
to the rescue and backed a deal for the sale of a paragon of Wall
Street culture, Bear Stearns, to JP Morgan Chase, for a mere $2 per
share. Lehman Brothers, another major investment bank, was also felt
to be tottering. Responding to the crisis of liquidity - the
availability of money for banks to loan, primarily to other smaller
banks and then on to Joe in the street - the Fed dropped the rate by a
further 0.75 percent. After weeks of dire financial instability, and
months of efforts by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to stem the downward
spiral sparked by the subprime collapse, mostly by repeated cuts in
the interest rate, the question on everyone's lips is one of
anticipation: How long will this go on? Perhaps they should also be
asking, "How much worse can this get?"

Even the most optimistic forecasts do not exclude the possibility that
a recession, or worse, stagflation (high prices on top of no jobs),
will go on for many months. Realists will also tell you that unless
the legacy of former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, primarily of averting
recession by adding cash to the economy through interest-rate
manipulation and lax lending regulation, is adjusted to the current
international conditions, we are all in for lean times. The condition
of the number one economy in the world will obviously affect the rest
of the world. But as you watch America tumble into what may be the
biggest economic crisis since World War II, from an international
perspective, China is the one to keep an eye on.

Let's state the obvious: China is the world's most populous country;
on average its economy is the fastest-growing one in Asia; its economy
is a mixed bag of reforms and strict state controls; and it is not a
democracy. Managing this problematic combination of factors is a
complex task to say the least, but more important, it is not something
that can go on indefinitely. Moreover, these factors have also
contributed to three parallel processes that have matured and are now
converging in China at this critical juncture, when the American
economy is in a downward spin. The impact of this convergence may mean
that the biggest domino in the world economy will also fall over, and
this is a crash that will not only be heard around the world, but may
also turn bloody.

The first process is the enrichment of China. The opening of the
Chinese economy to foreign investment made it part of the global
capitalist economy, bringing in billions of dollars from exports of
consumer goods and contributing to the emergence of a middle class.
The insatiable hunger of the developed world, particularly the United
States, for inexpensive Made in China products transformed the country
into what is essentially a lender of money. China has the largest
foreign reserves in the world, estimated at a staggering $1.4 trillion
dollars, nearly 70 percent of which is held in U.S. dollars. Even with
the gradual, yet significant, adjustments of the yuan's value during
the past two years, the dollar's dive means that Chinese laborers are
working harder to sustain the Americans' high standard of living,
which for years has relied on borrowed money - not on American
production. A financial meltdown in the U.S. will affect China and its
accumulated wealth badly.

Secondly, China is constantly in search of resources. The explosive
growth of the Chinese economy has made the need for fuel and raw
materials a priority, sending the price of commodities internationally
sky high. Coupled with the declining value of the dollar, the main
currency of international trade, not only are essential commodities,
like oil and grain, enormously expensive, but this past year the
situation has been exacerbated by growing concerns that climatic
changes may result in serious global shortages in basic foodstuffs.
This past month alone, the cost of foodstuffs in China rose by
approximately 24 percent. Inflation and scarcity, particularly of
basic necessities, including heating fuel, is the stuff public unrest
is made of.

The third process is socio-political. The decision of the Chinese
leadership, since 1989, to increasingly open up their society
economically, and allowing it to grow into a significant component of
the global economy, created openness on various levels,
notwithstanding the efforts of Chinese officials to keep the clamps of
centralized control in place. Such controls are impossible to apply
perfectly. As such, Chinese society is becoming increasingly unequal,
with a growing disparity between classes, and also growing unease, as
the public has greater access to information and means with which to
express dissatisfaction. Adding to this complex situation are
minorities, comprising nearly 9 percent of China's 1.3 billion
citizens, whose ethnic and cultural identities have for decades been
oppressed in a process the Dalai Lama recently described as "cultural
genocide."

Even though China is most often described in the U.S. as a "rival," in
great part due to the lack of transparency endemic to its one-party
system, in reality it is at this time much more of a partner. Indeed,
over the past five years, the two states have been locked in a bear
hug: each is too deeply reliant on the other for maintaining its
economic ethos that a separation would be detrimental to both. The
logic has so far been that the infusion of American dollars into
China, and their return to the U.S. for investment (mostly in Treasury
bills), is what is keeping the economies of the two countries afloat.
What happens if that balance fails? How much devaluation of the dollar
can China accept? How will Beijing weather a sustained depression in
the U.S., with fewer buyers for its consumer products?

This is a precarious time for a Chinese political system that abhors
instability. Will it make an audacious turn and break free of the
American financial embrace, risking its economic growth and potential
domestic upheaval? Will this not exacerbate the already dour economic
conditions in the U.S., forecast to spread elsewhere? We will have to
watch and see.

(Michalis Firillas, an editor at the Haaretz English edition, blogs at
http://firillas.blogspot.com.)
_____________________

See also:
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/MELTDWN1.HTM'
Sorting Through The Rubble In Post-Bubble America'

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/MELTDOWN.HTM
'The Coming U.S. Economic and Financial Meltdown'

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/MELTDWN2.HTM
'The U.S. Economic and Financial Meltdown Accelerates'

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/GEO443.HTM
'War Is A Racket' by Major General Smedley Butler, USMC.

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/USINVASN.HTM
'The 1935 U.S. War Plan For The Invasion Of Canada'
________________________

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http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcane.htm
'The Mariner Of St. Malo: A Chronicle of the Voyages of Jacques
Cartier' by Stephen Leacock
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcanh.htm
'The Founder Of New France: A Chronicle of Champlain' by Charles W.
Colby
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcand.htm
'The Jesuit Missions: A Chronicle of the Cross in the Wilderness' by
Thomas Guthrie Marquis
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcanc.htm
'The Seigneurs Of Old Canada: A Chronicle of New-World Feudalism' by
William Bennett Munroe
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcanl.htm
'The Great Intendant: A Chronicle of Jean Talon in Canada 1665-1672'
by Thomas Chapais
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcang.htm
'The Fighting Governor: A Chronicle of Frontenac' by Charles W. Colby
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcan9.htm
'The Passing Of New France: A Chronicle of Montcalm' by William Wood
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcan8.htm
'The Winning Of Canada: A Chronicle of Wolfe' by William Wood
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcana.htm
'The Father Of British Canada: A Chronicle of Carleton' by William
Wood
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcanb.htm
'The United Empire Loyalists: A Chronicle of the Great Migration' by
W. Stewart Wallace
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histcanj.htm
'Country Life In Canada Fifty Years Ago: Personal Recollections And
Reminiscences Of A Sexagenarian' by Canniff Haight (1825-1901)</a></
h4>

And As A Bonus...

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/ANABASIS.HTM
The Greek military and historival classic 'Anabasis', by Xenophon
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/HISTRUS3.HTM
The fascinating 'Rescuing The Czar; Two Authentic Diaries' (1920)
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/aushist1.htm
'The Life Of Captain James Cook, The Circumnavigator' by Arthur
Kitson
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/eurhist2.htm
'Fifteen Decisive Battles Of The World, From Marathon To Waterloo' by
Sir Edward Creasy, M.A.,
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/eurhist1.htm
'After Waterloo: Reminiscences of European Travel 1815-1819' by Major
W. E Frye
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/histchn2.htm
'A Narrative Of Exploration, Adventure, And Sport In Little-Known
China' by Roy Chapman Andrews and Yvette Borup Andrews (1920)
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/enghist1.htm
'What To See In England: A Guide To Places Of Historic Interest,
Natural Beauty Or Literary Association' by Gordon Home (1908)
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/PILGRIM1.HTM
John Bunyan's enduring spiritual classic, 'The Pilgrim's Progress'
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/PILGRIM2.HTM
John Bunyan's enduring spiritual classic, 'The Pilgrim's Progress',
Part 2.

Easter Devotional Reading...

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/RISEN-1.HTM
'The Resurrection of our Lord Jesus', A classic sermon by Charles
Haddon Spurgeon

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/RISEN-2.HTM
'The Power of Christ Illustrated by the Resurrection', A classic
sermon by Charles Haddon Spurgeon

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/RISEN-3.HTM
'The Resurrection of Christ', A classic sermon by J. Gresham Machen

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/RISEN-4.HTM
'The Resurrection of Christ - The Best-Proved Fact in History', by
Henry Morris, Ph.D.
__________________________________

http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com

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