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http://www.safehaven.com/article-4759.htm
March 12, 2006
The Fed Officially Kicks Off the Next Recession
by Robert McHugh
It is official. A recession is coming. How do I know? Because this week new
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave an official warning to bankers about
commercial real estate loans. That is always the kickoff to a recession. It
is the starter's gun, the national anthem before a ballgame, the opening
hymn at a church service. Here is how it works. The Fed has three official
tools to control the money supply: Setting reserve requirements (telling
banks how much of their deposits they cannot lend. The higher the reserve
requirements, the less loans, the less money creation by the economy). The
second tool is open market operations. Here they set the amount of money in
the system by buying or selling securities. Third is setting the discount
rate, the rate of interest banks must pay to borrow money at the Fed.
Theoretically, the higher the rate, the less money banks will borrow, the
less they have to lend, and the less money that is created by the banking
system.
However, there is a fourth tool, a stealth tool, which has more power and
impact than the other three. ...